{"id":5864,"date":"2026-04-30T10:17:31","date_gmt":"2026-04-30T08:17:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/propaccount.com\/?p=5864"},"modified":"2026-05-19T13:15:34","modified_gmt":"2026-05-19T11:15:34","slug":"what-are-prediction-markets-how-they-work","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/propaccount.com\/zh\/resources\/blog\/what-are-prediction-markets-how-they-work\/","title":{"rendered":"What Are Prediction Markets? How They Work"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2024\u5e7411\u6708\uff0c\u4e13\u4e1a\u6c11\u610f\u8c03\u67e5\u673a\u6784\u79f0\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u5927\u9009\u80dc\u8d1f\u96be\u6599\u3002\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5219\u4e0d\u4ee5\u4e3a\u7136\u3002\u6570\u5468\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u5e73\u53f0\u4e00\u76f4\u663e\u793a\u7279\u6717\u666e\u660e\u663e\u5360\u4f18\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14 <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/presidential-election-winner-2024\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">37\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u771f\u91d1\u767d\u94f6<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u6295\u6ce8\u6084\u7136\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u6bd4\u6574\u4e2a\u6c11\u610f\u8c03\u67e5\u884c\u4e1a\u52a0\u8d77\u6765\u66f4\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u3002.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u8fd9\u4e00\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a2024\u5e7410\u6708\u4e00\u9879\u5141\u8bb8\u975e\u91d1\u878d\u671f\u8d27\u7684\u6cd5\u9662\u88c1\u51b3\uff0c\u4f7f\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u767b\u4e0a\u4e86\u5168\u7403\u5404\u5927\u91d1\u878d\u51fa\u7248\u7269\u7684\u5934\u7248\u5934\u6761\u3002\u968f\u4e4b\u800c\u6765\u7684\u662f\u975e\u51e1\u7684\u589e\u957f\u3002\u52302025\u5e74\u5e95\uff0cPolymarket\u548cKalshi\u5408\u8ba1\u5904\u7406\u4e86\u8d85\u8fc7 <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theblock.co\/post\/383733\/prediction-markets-kalshi-polymarket-duopoly-2025\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">440\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u7684\u603b\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\uff0c\u800c\u51e0\u5e74\u524d\u51e0\u4e4e\u4e3a\u96f6\u3002\u7ebd\u7ea6\u8bc1\u5238\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u7684\u6bcd\u516c\u53f8\u6d32\u9645\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\uff08ICE\uff09\u627f\u8bfa\u5411<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/ir.theice.com\/press\/news-details\/2025\/ICE-Announces-Strategic-Investment-in-Polymarket\/default.aspx\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Polymarket\u6295\u516520\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, \uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u8be5\u9886\u57df\u6700\u5927\u7684\u53d7\u76d1\u7ba1\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u3002\u4e3b\u8981\u96f6\u552e\u7ecf\u7eaa\u5546\u3001\u4f53\u80b2\u535a\u5f69\u8fd0\u8425\u5546\u548c\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u90fd\u8fdb\u5165\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u516c\u53f8Eilers and Krejcik\u73b0\u5728\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u52302030\u5e74\uff0c\u8be5\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u5e74\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u53ef\u80fd\u8fbe\u52301\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u7a76\u7adf\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5982\u4f55\u8fd0\u4f5c\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u673a\u6784\u8d44\u91d1\u7a81\u7136\u6d8c\u5165\uff1f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u662f\u8be6\u7ec6\u89e3\u8bfb\u3002.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u7b80\u5355\u5b9a\u4e49<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u4eba\u4eec\u6839\u636e\u672a\u6765\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u4ea4\u6613\u975e\u91d1\u878d\u671f\u8d27\u5408\u7ea6\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u3002\u4f60\u4e0d\u662f\u8d2d\u4e70\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u6216\u8d27\u5e01\u5bf9\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5c31\u67d0\u4ef6\u7279\u5b9a\u4e8b\u60c5\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u8fdb\u884c\u5efa\u4ed3\u3002.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u6700\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u662f\u4e8c\u5143\u7684\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u660e\u786e\u7ed3\u7b97\u65e5\u671f\u7684\u201c\u662f\u201d\u6216\u201c\u5426\u201d\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4f1a\u5728\u4e0b\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u964d\u606f\u5417\uff1f\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4f1a\u5728\u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u6536\u76d8\u4ef7\u9ad8\u4e8e\u67d0\u4e2a\u7279\u5b9a\u4ef7\u683c\u5417\uff1f\u67d0\u652f\u7279\u5b9a\u7403\u961f\u4f1a\u8d62\u5f97\u51a0\u519b\u5417\uff1f\u4f60\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u4e2a\u5934\u5bf8\uff0c\u5408\u7ea6\u4f1a\u5b9e\u65f6\u4ea4\u6613\u76f4\u5230\u4e8b\u4ef6\u89e3\u51b3\u3002\u5982\u679c\u7ed3\u7b97\u65f6\u4f60\u5224\u65ad\u6b63\u786e\uff0c\u4f60\u5c06\u83b7\u5f97\u6536\u76ca\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u5224\u65ad\u9519\u8bef\uff0c\u4f60\u5c06\u5931\u53bb\u4f60\u6240\u62bc\u6ce8\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u3002\u4f46\u4f60\u5e76\u975e\u88ab\u9501\u5b9a\u3002\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u7ed3\u7b97\u524d\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u65f6\u5019\u4e70\u5165\u6216\u5356\u51fa\u4f60\u7684\u5934\u5bf8\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8d54\u7387\u5bf9\u4f60\u6709\u5229\u5219\u83b7\u5229\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8d54\u7387\u5bf9\u4f60\u4e0d\u5229\u5219\u6b62\u635f\u3002.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u5408\u7ea6\u4ef7\u683c\u5728\u96f6\u5230\u4e00\u7f8e\u5143\u4e4b\u95f4\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002\u4e00\u4efd\u5b9a\u4ef7\u4e3a0.65\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5408\u7ea6\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5e02\u573a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8be5\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e3a65%\u3002\u968f\u7740\u66f4\u591a\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u8fdb\u5165\u5934\u5bf8\u548c\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u6d41\u5165\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u5b9e\u65f6\u53d8\u52a8\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u5e02\u573a\u6b63\u5728\u8ffd\u8e2a\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u5b9e\u65f6\u3001\u4f17\u5305\u6982\u7387\u8861\u91cf\u3002.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5408\u7ea6\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u8fd0\u4f5c\u65b9\u5f0f<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u673a\u5236\u76f8\u5f53\u7b80\u5355\u3002\u4f60\u5728\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u5e73\u53f0\u4e0a\u5f00\u7acb\u8d26\u6237\uff0c\u5145\u503c\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u6d4f\u89c8\u53ef\u7528\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u3002\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5e02\u573a\u90fd\u56f4\u7ed5\u4e00\u4e2a\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u3001\u5ba2\u89c2\u53ef\u9a8c\u8bc1\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u6784\u5efa\uff0c\u5177\u6709\u660e\u786e\u7684\u7ed3\u7b97\u65e5\u671f\u548c\u5b9a\u4e49\u7684\u7ed3\u5c40\u6807\u51c6\u3002.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u5047\u8bbe\u60a8\u4ee5 0.40 \u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u8d2d\u4e70\u4e86\u4e00\u4efd\u201c\u662f\u201d\u5408\u7ea6\u3002\u60a8\u652f\u4ed8 40 \u7f8e\u5206\uff0c\u4ee5\u83b7\u5f97\u5728\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u65f6\u6536\u53d6 1 \u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u6743\u5229\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\uff1a\u60a8\u6536\u53d6 1 \u7f8e\u5143\u5e76\u83b7\u5229 60 \u7f8e\u5206\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e0d\u53d1\u751f\uff1a\u60a8\u635f\u5931 40 \u7f8e\u5206\u3002\u60a8\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u7ed3\u7b97\u524d\u51fa\u552e\u60a8\u7684\u5934\u5bf8\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\u6539\u53d8\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u9501\u5b9a\u6536\u76ca\u6216\u6b62\u635f\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u5177\u6709\u6df1\u5ea6\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u4e0d\u662f\u5728\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7ed3\u675f\u524d\u9501\u5b9a\u7684\u9759\u6001\u8d4c\u6ce8\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u662f\u5b9e\u65f6\u3001\u53ef\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u5728\u5408\u7ea6\u7684\u6574\u4e2a\u751f\u547d\u5468\u671f\u4e2d\uff0c\u5934\u5bf8\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fdb\u5165\u3001\u8c03\u6574\u548c\u9000\u51fa\u3002.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u4e3b\u8981\u5e73\u53f0\u76ee\u524d\u4f7f\u7528\u4e09\u79cd\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u5408\u7ea6\u7c7b\u578b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u4e8c\u5143\u5408\u7ea6\uff1a\u662f\u6216\u5426\uff0c\u6700\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\uff0c\u6b63\u786e\u7ed3\u679c\u652f\u4ed8 1 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4e0d\u6b63\u786e\u7ed3\u679c\u652f\u4ed8 0 \u7f8e\u5143<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u8fde\u7eed\u5408\u7ea6\uff1a\u652f\u4ed8\u6839\u636e\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u7ed3\u679c\u800c\u975e\u5355\u4e00\u4e8c\u5143\u7ed3\u679c\u800c\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u4ef7\u683c\u6c34\u5e73\u6216\u6295\u7968\u4efd\u989d\u767e\u5206\u6bd4<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u6761\u4ef6\u5408\u7ea6\uff1a\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0e\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u9996\u5148\u53d1\u751f\u76f8\u5173\u8054\uff0c\u4e3a\u5e02\u573a\u7ed3\u6784\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u5c42<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u7fa4\u4f53\u667a\u6167\uff1a\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u4e3a\u4f55\u6709\u6548<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u7531\u6765\u5df2\u4e45\u3002\u5f53\u4eba\u4eec\u6295\u5165\u771f\u91d1\u767d\u94f6\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u63ed\u793a\u81ea\u5df1\u771f\u6b63\u76f8\u4fe1\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5728\u5bf9\u8bdd\u4e2d\u542c\u8d77\u6765\u5f88\u806a\u660e\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u6fc0\u52b1\u7ed3\u6784\u63a8\u52a8\u4e86\u8bda\u5b9e\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u805a\u5408\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u79f0\u4e4b\u4e3a\u201c\u7fa4\u4f53\u667a\u6167\u201d\u3002.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u4e2a\u4eba\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0d\u5145\u5206\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\uff0c\u4e5f\u80fd\u4e3a\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u96c6\u4f53\u4fe1\u53f7\u505a\u51fa\u8d21\u732e\u3002\u72af\u9519\u7684\u8d22\u52a1\u6210\u672c\u8d77\u5230\u8fc7\u6ee4\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u5b83\u4fc3\u4f7f\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u5f62\u6210\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u8868\u6f14\u6027\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u3002\u8ffd\u6eaf\u5230 19 \u4e16\u7eaa\u7684\u5b66\u672f\u7814\u7a76\u4e00\u81f4\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u8868\u73b0\u4f18\u4e8e\u6c11\u610f\u8c03\u67e5\u548c\u4e13\u5bb6\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5dee\u8ddd\u968f\u7740\u7ed3\u7b97\u65e5\u671f\u7684\u4e34\u8fd1\u548c\u4fe1\u606f\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u5b8c\u6574\u800c\u8d8b\u4e8e\u7f29\u5c0f\u3002.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b><i>2024 \u5e74\u5927\u9009\u4e3a\u8fd9\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u8fc4\u4eca\u4e3a\u6b62\u6700\u5f15\u4eba\u6ce8\u76ee\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u3002\u653f\u6cbb\u7ade\u9009\u56e2\u961f\u73b0\u5728\u76d1\u6d4b\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u8d54\u7387\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u4ed6\u4eec\u66fe\u7ecf\u8ffd\u8e2a\u5185\u90e8\u6c11\u610f\u8c03\u67e5\u4e00\u6837\u3002\u5a92\u4f53\u5728\u62a5\u9053\u524d\u4f1a\u67e5\u770b\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5e02\u573a\u3002\u793e\u4f1a\u5bf9\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u5b9a\u4ef7\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u8f6c\u53d8\uff0c\u800c\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u6b63\u5904\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e00\u8f6c\u53d8\u7684\u4e2d\u5fc3\u3002.<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u63a8\u52a8\u884c\u4e1a\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u5e73\u53f0<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u76ee\u524d\u5904\u4e8e\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u9886\u57df\u9876\u7aef\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u5e73\u53f0\u662f\uff1aPolymarket \u548c Kalshi\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u5408\u8ba1\u5360 2025 \u5e74\u603b\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u7684\u7ea6 85% \u5230 90%\u3002.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Polymarket \u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u53bb\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5316\u7684\u3001\u57fa\u4e8e\u533a\u5757\u94fe\u7684\u3001\u4ee5\u7a33\u5b9a\u5e01\u7ed3\u7b97\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u8fd0\u8425\u3002Kalshi \u5728\u4f53\u80b2\u5e02\u573a\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4e0e\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u804c\u4e1a\u4f53\u80b2\u8054\u76df\u8fbe\u6210\u4e86\u53f2\u4e0a\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u8bb8\u53ef\u534f\u8bae\u3002.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u9664\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u5e73\u53f0\uff0c2025 \u5e74\u8fd8\u6d8c\u5165\u4e86\u4e00\u6ce2\u673a\u6784\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u3002Robinhood \u5728\u5176\u96f6\u552e\u4ea4\u6613\u5e94\u7528\u5185\u63a8\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u5fc3\u3002\u4f53\u80b2\u535a\u5f69\u8fd0\u8425\u5546 DraftKings \u548c FanDuel \u6536\u8d2d\u6216\u4e0e\u8054\u90a6\u8bb8\u53ef\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5408\u7ea6\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d DraftKings \u6536\u8d2d\u4e86 CFTC \u8bb8\u53ef\u7684 Railbird\uff0cFanDuel \u5219\u4e0e CME Group \u5408\u4f5c\u63a8\u51fa\u4e86\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5e73\u53f0\u3002\u52a0\u5bc6\u5e73\u53f0\u548c\u4f53\u80b2\u5546\u4e1a\u516c\u53f8\u901a\u8fc7\u5408\u8d44\u4f01\u4e1a\u8fdb\u5165\u3002.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Polymarket \u5904\u7406\u4e86\u8d85\u8fc7 <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theblock.co\/post\/333050\/polymarkets-huge-year-9-billion-in-volume-and-314000-active-traders-redefine-prediction-markets\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">90 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u4ec5\u5728 2024 \u5e74\u7684\u7d2f\u8ba1\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u5355\u6708\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u8fbe\u5230 26.3 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5cf0\u503c\u3002Kalshi \u5904\u7406\u4e86\u5927\u7ea6 <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rootdata.com\/news\/490549\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$230\u4ebf<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> 2025\u5e74\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\uff0c\u9ad8\u4e8e\u524d\u4e00\u5e74\u7684\u4ec5$3\u4ebf\u3002.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u4f60\u7a76\u7adf\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ea4\u6613\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u65e9\u671f\u5e73\u53f0\u51e0\u4e4e\u5b8c\u5168\u4e13\u6ce8\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u6cbb\u3002\u5982\u4eca\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u5e73\u53f0\u6db5\u76d6\u4e86\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u7c7b\u522b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u9009\u4e3e\uff1a<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u652f\u6301\u7387\u3001\u7acb\u6cd5\u7ed3\u679c\u3001\u4efb\u547d\u51b3\u5b9a\u3001\u56fd\u9645\u9009\u4e3e<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u91d1\u878d\uff1a<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5229\u7387\u51b3\u5b9a\u3001\u901a\u80c0\u6570\u636e\u3001GDP\u6570\u636e\u3001\u4e3b\u8981\u6307\u6570\u6c34\u5e73\u3001\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01\u4ef7\u683c\u76ee\u6807<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>\u4f53\u80b2\uff1a<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u6bd4\u8d5b\u7ed3\u679c\u3001\u51a0\u519b\u5f97\u4e3b\u3001\u4e2a\u4eba\u7403\u5458\u8868\u73b0\u91cc\u7a0b\u7891\u3001\u8d5b\u5b63\u7edf\u8ba1\u6570\u636e<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>\u79d1\u5b66\u548c\u6280\u672f\uff1a<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> AI\u80fd\u529b\u91cc\u7a0b\u7891\u3001\u836f\u7269\u5ba1\u6279\u51b3\u5b9a\u3001\u6c14\u5019\u548c\u5929\u6c14\u8bb0\u5f55<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>\u6587\u5316\u548c\u5a31\u4e50\uff1a<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u9881\u5956\u5178\u793c\u83b7\u5956\u8005\u3001\u7968\u623f\u8868\u73b0\u3001\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u4f53\u91cc\u7a0b\u7891<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u6ce8\u610f\u4e8b\u9879<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u5e26\u6709\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u5408\u7ea6\u53ef\u80fd\u5f52\u96f6\u3002\u5c0f\u4f17\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5e02\u573a\u901a\u5e38\u7f3a\u4e4f\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u5728\u4e0d\u5f71\u54cd\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u5e73\u4ed3\u53d8\u5f97\u56f0\u96be\u3002\u5f53\u7ed3\u679c\u6a21\u7cca\u6216\u5b58\u5728\u4e89\u8bae\u65f6\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u89e3\u51b3\u4e89\u8bae\u3002\u800c\u62e5\u6709\u66f4\u597d\u4fe1\u606f\u548c\u66f4\u5feb\u6267\u884c\u529b\u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\uff0c\u5219\u80fd\u6301\u7eed\u5730\u4ece\u90a3\u4e9b\u6ca1\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4f18\u52bf\u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u90a3\u91cc\u83b7\u53d6\u4ef7\u503c\u3002.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/docs.polymarket.com\/api-reference\/geoblock\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Polymarket<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u5728\u591a\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u9762\u4e34\u9650\u5236\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0cKalshi \u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u516c\u53f8\u4e5f\u906d\u9047\u4e86\u5dde\u4e00\u7ea7\u7684\u6cd5\u5f8b\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u6765\u81ea\u8d85\u8fc7 <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/predictionnews.com\/news\/34-state-attorney-generals-file-brief-against-kalshi-sports-contracts\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">30 \u4e2a\u5dde\u7684\u68c0\u5bdf\u957f\u91c7\u53d6\u4e86\u6b63\u5f0f\u884c\u52a8<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u2014\u2014\u901a\u8fc7\u7981\u4ee4\u51fd\u3001\u8bc9\u8bbc\u6216\u6cd5\u5ead\u4e4b\u53cb\u7b80\u62a5\u2014\u2014\u9488\u5bf9 2025 \u5e74\u7684\u4f53\u80b2\u5408\u7ea6\u3002\u4efb\u4f55\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5728\u6295\u5165\u8d44\u91d1\u4e4b\u524d\u90fd\u5e94\u6838\u5b9e\u5176\u6240\u9009\u5e73\u53f0\u7684\u5408\u6cd5\u5730\u4f4d\u3002.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u9884\u6d4b\u53ca\u672a\u6765\u5c55\u671b<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u4f53\u80b2\u5408\u7ea6\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u5360\u8be5\u957f\u671f\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u7684 44%\u3002\u622a\u81f3 2026 \u5e74\u521d\uff0cPolymarket \u548c Kalshi \u7684\u6708\u5ea6\u603b\u8fd0\u884c\u7387\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u8be5\u884c\u4e1a\u5df2\u671d\u7740 <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/12\/17\/prediction-markets-trillion-dollar-trading-volume-ek-report.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2000 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u6216\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u5e74\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u8fc8\u8fdb\u3002.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u673a\u6784\u91c7\u7eb3\u6b63\u5728\u52a0\u901f\u3002\u7ebd\u7ea6\u8bc1\u5238\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u7684\u6bcd\u516c\u53f8 ICE\uff08\u6d32\u9645\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\uff09\u5df2\u627f\u8bfa\u5411\u5176\u5168\u7403\u673a\u6784\u5ba2\u6237\u7fa4\u5206\u53d1\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u6570\u636e\u4f5c\u4e3a\u60c5\u7eea\u6307\u6807\u3002\u6b63\u5982 <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.financemagnates.com\/forex\/are-prediction-markets-the-next-evolution-of-retail-prop-trading\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u6c47\u4ea8<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u6240\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u73b0\u5728\u4e0d\u4ec5\u88ab\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u65b0\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u7c7b\u522b\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u662f\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u96f6\u552e\u4ea4\u6613\u884c\u4e1a\u67d0\u4e9b\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u8f6c\u6298\u70b9\uff0c\u771f\u5b9e\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5408\u7ea6\u6b63\u5728\u53d6\u4ee3\u6a21\u62df\u4ea4\u6613\u73af\u5883\u3002.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u548c\u4fe1\u606f\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u878d\u5408\u4e0d\u4f1a\u9006\u8f6c\u3002\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u5df2\u4ece\u76d1\u7ba1\u7070\u8272\u5730\u5e26\u53d1\u5c55\u6210\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u4e00\u4e9b\u6700\u5927\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u3001\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u548c\u4f53\u80b2\u8054\u76df\u90fd\u53c2\u4e0e\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u9886\u57df\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u8d44\u4ea7\u7c7b\u522b\u662f\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\uff0c\u5b83\u6b63\u5728\u5feb\u901f\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u6b63\u5728\u6210\u4e3a\u4e2a\u4eba\u548c\u673a\u6784\u8861\u91cf\u672a\u6765\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u5e38\u89c1\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><b>\u95ee\uff1a\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\uff1f<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u4e70\u5356\u771f\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7ed3\u679c\u5408\u7ea6\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u3002\u4ef7\u683c\u53cd\u6620\u96c6\u4f53\u6982\u7387\u3002\u6b63\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\u6bcf\u4efd\u5408\u7ea6\u652f\u4ed8 1 \u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u9519\u8bef\u9884\u6d4b\u652f\u4ed8 0 \u7f8e\u5143\u3002.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>\u95ee\uff1a\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u5408\u6cd5\u5417\uff1f<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u56e0\u53f8\u6cd5\u7ba1\u8f96\u533a\u800c\u5f02\u3002\u4e00\u4e9b\u5e73\u53f0\u53d7\u8054\u90a6\u76d1\u7ba1\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u5404\u5730\u5b8c\u5168\u5408\u6cd5\u3002\u5728\u4ea4\u6613\u524d\u52a1\u5fc5\u67e5\u770b\u60a8\u6240\u5728\u5730\u7684\u89c4\u5219\u3002.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>\u95ee\uff1a\u8c01\u5728\u4ea4\u6613\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\uff1f<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u6563\u6237\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u6b63\u5728\u6539\u53d8\u3002Acuiti 2025\u5e74\u7b2c\u56db\u5b63\u5ea6\u62a5\u544a\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5168\u740310%\u7684\u81ea\u8425\u4ea4\u6613\u516c\u53f8\u5df2\u7ecf\u6d3b\u8dc3\uff0c75%\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u516c\u53f8\u6b63\u5728\u4ea4\u6613\u6216\u8bc4\u4f30\u5b83\u4eec\u3002.<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Learn what prediction markets are, how they work, and why they\u2019re growing fast. 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